What is Texas Hold'em Equity? How to calculate win rate?
Hold'em equity is a very important concept in Texas Hold'em. If you are unfamiliar with this concept, then reading this article compiled by the WSOP event team will help you a lot in your development and learning of Texas Hold'em.
Let's now take a look at what poker equity is and why it matters.
What is Texas Hold'em Equity?
Equity is your share of the pot if there is no action on the table and the subsequent board is dealt. It depends on the probability of a player having the best hand after the deal is over.
For example, if you shove preflop with pocket aces and another player calls with pocket kings, you have an 82 chance %的概率在翻牌、转牌和河牌发出后仍然拿着最好牌。因此，你的胜率是82% .
How to Calculate Poker Equity?
In the early rounds (preflop and flop), equity is best calculated with tools such as Poker Equilab. These tools perform a large number of simulated deals to derive relative equity.
The screenshot above shows a calculation from the Poker Equilab software. The software simulated 16 million deals and found that AA had an 81.94% equity against KK.
It is easier to calculate equity results on the turn. You can still use tools like Equilab, but you can also do the math in your head. You just need to know how many outs the lagging hand has that can be turned over.
For example, let's say I hold A♥ A♣ against your J♠ T♠ and the board is 9♠ 6♠ 2♦ 2♠.
If I'm going to beat your flush, I have to get a 2 or an ace on the river to complete the full house. With 44 cards left in the deck, 4 2s or Aces would give me a much-needed full house. 4 divided by 44 equals 9.1% – that's the equity of my pocket aces against your flush.
Why Does Win Rate Matter?
Fundamentally, Texas Hold'em is a mathematical game with probability at its core. That doesn't mean the game doesn't have other aspects, but it's built on this mathematical foundation itself.
Equity is the biggest driver of poker strategy. It's a tool to decide everything in poker, like whether you should:
★ catch bluffs
★ Continuous betting
Let's look at a few scenarios where we use equity to determine the best course of action:
1. Catch bluffs
Say you have J♣ T♠ on the river.
The board was J♦ 9♥ 7♠ 4♥ 3♦. The opponent bets $50 into the $100 pot. You speculate that his range includes 70s %比你强的牌和30% weaker.
In this case, you can estimate whether it is profitable to call based on equity and pot odds. You need to call $50 to win $200 ($100 initial pot + $50 opponent's bet + $50 your call), which means you need to win 25% of the time.
In other words, you need to have %的胜率。鉴于你的胜率是30% , you can conclude that calling is very profitable.
2. Value betting
Suppose you have the same hole cards on the same board. But this time, you need to judge whether your hand is strong enough to bet for value.
Your estimate: If you bet $50 into a $100 pot, you will be called by 45 %的差牌和55% good hands. In other words, your equity against the calling range is 45%.
★ EV = (45/100) * 50 – (55/100) * 50 = -5 (USD)
★ 45% of the time he calls we win $50
★ 55% of the time we lose $50 when he calls
This means that you can't profitably value bet this hand.
Further explanation: If you take into account the fold equity you get, this type of bet is still +EV. But it pays less than other actions (such as checking or betting smaller).
3. C-bet frequency
Win rate is the number one driver (but not the only factor) in determining aggression. This makes sense because a player with higher equity wants to increase the pot size when he is ahead.
Let's look at a few simulations of the button against the big blind in a single-raised pot that proves this concept.
Equity and betting frequency for button players:
Flop K♦ Q♣ 6♥
Win Rate Player Win Rate: 56.5%
Betting frequency: 83.5%
Flop Q♠ J♦ 7♥
Win Rate Player Win Rate: 55.5%
Betting frequency: 73.6%
The flop T♠ 9♥ 7♦
Win Rate Player Win Rate: 53.5%
Betting frequency: 53.5%
Flop 8♣ 7♦ 4♣
Win Rate Player Win Rate: 52%
Betting frequency: 45.2%
This concept of betting more frequently with higher equity also applies to micro stakes levels.
If you look at the same simulations performed with these data, you will see that, in general, the higher the equity of the hole card, the higher the betting frequency the Solver software will assign to it. Let's look at the button's solution on the 8♣ 7♦ 4♣ flop:
Please focus on the 8x and 7x cards. Can you notice a trend?
★ A8s bet 95% of the time
★ K8s bet 71% of the time
★ Q8s bet 45% of the time
★ J8s bet 23% of the time
★ T8s bet 19% of the time
★ 98s bet 4% of the time
The stronger the kicker, the higher the betting frequency (in most cases).
Of course, the trend is reversed for different hands where the game is affected by other factors (such as overpairs).
4. To bluff or not
To bluff or not to bluff, that is the question! Win rates can help us answer that. Let's take an example to explain this concept.
The pot has $100. You have AQo on the J♠ 7♥ 5♣ 3♣ 3♥ board. You estimate that you have 15 %胜率。但你也估计如果你下注3/4底池（75美元），你将让对手在50% fold at 50 and get nothing when called 50% of the time.
So, which is better to play?
We use our estimated win rates to plan the EV for each play.
Check's EV: (15 / 100) * 100 = $15
EV of a bluff bet: (50/100) * 100 – (50/100) * 75 = $12.5
Using equity and simple math, we can determine which play is the most profitable for this situation: check.
Win rate is the most important factor in strategy development, but it is not the only factor. Correctly estimating the equity of your hand in any situation is an essential skill that will definitely help you win more at the poker table.
To improve this aspect of the game, you can use various tools for calculating win rates (win rate calculators and solver software).
That's all for this article. I hope this article can give you some inspiration.
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